A spot on the horizon

Welcome to the seventh module!

You’re doing great! After completing these, there are only two chapters left to finish, and then you can download your certificate. First, we’ll make a stop in Rotterdam.

Meet Derk Loorbach

Derk is the director of DRIFT and a professor of socio-economic transitions at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam.

The word ‘transition’ is often used.

The word ‘transition' is another term for a change caused by interacting (and therefore complex) developments, in this case, a system change.

But what do we mean by a transition?

Derk gives his definition.

A transition is a process of fundamental change in the culture, structure, and reality of a society.

- Derk Loorbach

Time to unravel this definition.

A fundamental change means that things are already different from the ground up, at the foundation. No small change, in other words.

Yet the scale of a real transition is often underestimated.

Some people view switching from a petrol-powered car to an electric vehicle as a transition. However, that’s only a small piece of the puzzle in a much larger picture, that of the energy transition. This transition centres on the transition from the use of fossil energy (from coal, natural gas and oil, for example) to energy from renewable sources (such as solar and wind).

It goes beyond setting goals.

It’s not enough to state that, from 2030, we want to reduce the administrative burden in healthcare by fifty per cent.

Derk discussed ‘target visions’.

That should remind you of the desirable future that came up earlier in the course.

The probable future

This is how most people view the future. You look at existing patterns or trends and assume they will continue tomorrow and the day after. The future scenario then becomes an extension of the present.

The possible future (plausible)

In the possible future, you ask the "what if" question. What if we get a new government? What if a new pandemic occurs? What if the Netherlands becomes the football world champion? Answers to questions like this make a reasonable foundation for scenarios. Plausible means not making very extreme assumptions.

The possible future (speculative)

This is a bit like the plausible future, but you apply a bigger scale to your assumptions. To achieve this, you should stretch your imagination a bit. We looked at this in detail in module 6.

The desirable future

The remarkable thing about the future is that it’s not yet set in stone. In other words, we can influence it. That’s why it is also good not to surrender to all kinds of external influences or trends, but to think about "which" future you would like.

To the period after 1945.

World War II caused great poverty. In the Netherlands alone, 20.000 people died of hunger. After the war, the phrase “Never again hungry” was heard.

And the reconstruction.

There were shortages for a long time after World War II, and everyone can remember the scarcity of food. The goal is to increase food production to ensure that hunger is never an issue again. Additionally, it’s good for the economy.

The Netherlands gets funding and new techniques from the United States to enable large-scale agriculture. New machines are introduced in agriculture, and fields are combined to create larger areas of land for cultivation.

And now in 2026...

We are several generations further along, and it’s becoming apparent that the current system is unsustainable. Now, industrial food production and large-scale farms are available. The connection between agriculture and its effect on nature and biodiversity is proving difficult to manage.

It’s just a few per cent here and there.

But the big transition isn’t happening, according to Derk.

Transitions follow patterns of construction and disassembly.

While working on societal problems, people often unquestioningly focus on the bigger, newer, and better thing. Frequently forgetting the importance of stopping, creative destruction is an essential condition for innovation.

Creative destruction...

Is an ongoing process of innovation in which successful applications of new technologies replace old ones. Consider the rise of online streaming platforms, including Netflix, HBO, and Videoland. They allow you to watch movies, programmes, and series whenever and wherever you want. Most video stores didn’t survive this development. And you don't even need a TV anymore; a smartphone, tablet, or laptop works just fine as well.

The solution.

There is also considerable innovation within the agricultural system, with the emergence of new forms of agriculture. But achieving a healthy and sustainable farming system is easier said than done.

And who is at the table?

Farmers have their interests. Food manufacturers and supermarkets also have their interests. Citizens have their interests. Everyone negotiates and joins the conversation. Although…

Everyone ... except nature.

In several indigenous cultures, it is common for the Earth, or parts of it, to be considered to have a voice. As an experiment, some companies already reserve a seat at the boardroom table for nature.

And what’s that got to do with the agricultural system?

The concept of the commons can also be applied to work toward a sustainable agricultural system by collaborating on solutions for agriculture, for example. It’s not about profit and private property, but rather a piece of land managed by the community.

Derk is also involved with commons.

In summary.

This chapter covered the following:

A transition is a process of fundamental change in the culture, structure and reality of a society.
A transition is not about the short term but instead covers a period of several generations.
The challenge is to properly define the desirable future and work toward it.
It is essential to have everyone at the table, including entities such as the Earth, water, and air.
With commons, people and the public good are again at the centre rather than striving for more.

Thinking patterns.

When dealing with change, we sometimes let our patterns of thinking and behaviour undermine us. In the next module, you will learn about the dangers and how to best deal with them.