#8 Dealing with change

Dealing with change

Futures thinking is human work, with Rabia Kodapanakkal.

This course has already covered a lot.

From thinking in multiple futures to stretching your imagination.

However, one important factor is still missing: people.

Because plenty of people claim they like change. But in practice, it's different.

change meme

We will discuss that with Rabia Kodapanakkal.

Rabia is a researcher at the Algemene Rekenkamer (Court of Audit).

What determines our behaviour?

There are plenty of concepts from social psychology to discuss. But for now, we will limit ourselves to these two:




For Rabia, these concepts are important when researching the future.

Human behaviour is also influenced by technology.

Indeed, our attitude toward technology changes over time.

locomotief

Everyone is different.

And also reacts differently to (new) technology.

Sometimes it’s like a hurtling train.

Suppose you are absolutely against the use of facial recognition in demonstrations; it might seem like there is nothing you can do about it. Nothing intervened in the progress of the refrigerator and the printing press, did it?

koelkast

Rabia has a hopeful message for you.

It is indeed possible to change something, even a social norm, can be reversed.

Using lessons from the past to change social norms in the future.

- Rabia Kodapanakkal

Bias.

An assumption that affects our thinking is also referred to as a bias. Rabia explained the status quo bias in an earlier excerpt. These (un)conscious assumptions limit our ability to think about the future.

Rather a bird in the hand.

An example of bias is time preference. This means that we consider things in the present more important than things in the future. You may just miss out on an extra marshmallow, or the interests of future generations may not be considered in our decisions.

marshmallows

Theoretically possible.

However, if you hear this explanation after the fact, it may be a case of cognitive dissonance. After all, our brain is working hard to align our words and actions. If you don’t manage to keep the marshmallow, you’re going to convince yourself that it was a good idea to eat that marshmallow anyway.

Our human nature gets in our way.




Look in the mirror.

So, it is challenging to stay objective when considering the future. It doesn’t matter if you’re talking about your future or our common future.

spiegel

In summary.

This chapter covered the following:




All beginnings are difficult.

Now that you’re almost a real futures thinker, you may be wondering where to start to get things moving. Fortunately, that’s easier than many people think, and what starts small can grow surprisingly quickly. That’s what the next module is about.

Module 8 Completed!

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