The future is plural

Meet Erna Ovaa.

She’s the programme leader of Strategic Explorations at Rijkswaterstaat. Rijkswaterstaat is responsible for the design, construction, management and maintenance of the Netherlands’ primary infrastructure facilities.

Are you already familiar with Rijkswaterstaat?

Rijkswaterstaat is responsible for the design, construction, management and maintenance of the Netherlands’ primary infrastructure facilities. They manage and develop the major waterways, rivers, national highways, and main waterways in the Netherlands. You could say it’s their job to make this country flood-protected, liveable, and accessible.

What are strategic explorations?

We also asked Erna.

What futures is she thinking about?

In summary.

(Click on the terms to read more)

The probable future

This is how most people view the future. You look at existing patterns or trends and assume they will continue tomorrow and the day after. The future scenario then becomes an extension of the present.

The possible future (plausible)

In the possible future, you ask the "what if" question. What if we get a new government? What if a new pandemic occurs? What if the Netherlands becomes the football world champion? Answers to questions like this make a reasonable foundation for scenarios. Plausible means not making very extreme assumptions.

The possible future (speculative)

This is similar to the plausible future, but you apply a bigger scale to your assumptions. To achieve this, you need to stretch your imagination a bit. We'll go into this more in module 6 (The power of imagination).

The desirable future

The remarkable thing about the future is that it’s not yet set in stone. In other words, we can influence it. That’s why it is also good not to surrender to all kinds of external influences or trends, but to think about "which" future you would actually like. That’s why we’re also going to discuss the desirable spot on the horizon in module 7.

“Everyone plays Pokémon Go.”

Remember back in 2016? We saw the rapid rise of Pokémon Go. The game had players catching virtual Pokémon all over the place in the real world. It became a phenomenon and even one of the most widely used applications after its launch. Large groups of players gathered in the streets; it was covered in all the media.

The mobile app was the hype of 2016. At the time, over two million Dutch players participated in this augmented reality game. Meanwhile, this number has dropped considerably; the latest estimate counts 290,000 daily players.

The Hype Cycle.

Gartner is a company that has developed a model to see if a hype turns into a trend. It is mainly applied to technological developments, and has several phases.

Erna is also familiar with Gartner's model.

She wants to prevent people from getting too caught up in a hype (the peak of inflated expectations) or the trough of disillusionment.

Yes... But does this mean we have to consider every single development?

It's hard to keep track. As well as technological developments, there are also demographic, cultural, and geopolitical developments. You name it. We asked Erna for a tip.

Tomorrow maybe, or maybe tomorrow.

Erna came up with a clever way to get the conversation going with her colleagues.

It’s always about multiple futures because there is also uncertainty.

- Erna Ovaa

In summary.

In this module, we covered the following:

There is no such thing as THE future. It is better to think of different kinds of futures.
Using this approach to work out a future is called a scenario. Or an exploration.
Technological developments are often paired with hype.
The hype cycle and trend maps are tools for organisations to engage in conversation about the future.

Moving on to the next module.

Now that you have a good understanding of what futures thinking means, it is important to know how to deal with your blind spots. In the next module, you will learn to value other perspectives and include them in your own future scenarios.

The future is plural

Welcome to the third module!

Meet Erna Ovaa.

Are you already familiar with Rijkswaterstaat?

What are strategic explorations?

We also asked Erna.

In summary.

“Everyone plays Pokémon Go.”

The Hype Cycle.

Erna is also familiar with Gartner's model.

Yes... But does this mean we have to consider every single development?

Tomorrow maybe, or maybe tomorrow.

It’s always about multiple futures because there is also uncertainty.

In summary.

Moving on to the next module.

Module 3 afgerond!